Monday, June 25, 2018

Warren Buffett's Gems


Some of Buffett's gems which i wish to keep reminding myself:


"If you buy things you do not need, soon you will have to sell things you need."

"Do not save what is left after spending, but spend what is left after saving."

"If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die."

"You only have to do a very few things right in your life, so long as you don't do too many things wrong."

"I don't look to jump over 7-foot bars; I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over."

"The most important investment you can make is in yourself."

"Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble."

"Predicting rain doesn't count. Building arks does."

"Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre."




Sunday, June 24, 2018

Portfolio Value as per June 2018

No.
Counters
No of Shares
Market Price
per Share
(SGD)
Total Value
(SGD)
1
AEM
48,000$1.150$55,200.00
2Avi-Tech100,000$0.390$39,000.00
3Best World50,000$1.320$66,000.00
4Innotek190,000$0.355$67,450.00
5Sunningdale60,000$1.330$79,800.00
6
Tat Seng
Packaging
50,000$0.725$36,250.00
7
Cash


$46,656.80









TOTAL:$390,356.80

(1) I have divested Chasen.

(2) Total dividend collected for HY2018: $8,580.

(3) Accumulating my war chest.

(4) Do not intend to add any counters yet as i have not find any good buy.....shall be patient and very careful in my next purchase (if any).






Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Portfolio Value as per May 2018

No.
Counters
No of Shares
Market Price
per Share
(SGD)
Total Value
(SGD)
1
AEM
12,000$1.480$17,760.00
2Avi-Tech100,000$0.405$40,500.00
3Best World50,000$1.240$62,000.00
4Chasen400,000$0.690$27,600.00
5Innotek190,000$0.365$69,350.00
6Sunningdale60,000$1.270$76,200.00
7
Tat Seng
Packaging
50,000$0.800$40,000.00
8
Cash


$16,042.75





TOTAL:$349,452.75

(1) I have divested all my 800 Super with a profit of about 15% including of dividend.
I think 800 Super business is still good, but the ratio between cash and debts is really too low, so i have decided to divest it. Should it able to generate more cash in the future and lower their debts, i might be looking into it again.

(2) Added 20,000 shares of Tat Seng Packaging.

(3) I plan to divest all my Chasen holding early next month after their FY report is out. I will sell off all my shares regardless of the share price. Chasen is also not my cup of tea, i hope i will learn a lesson here.

(4) I have 36,000 shares of AEM will be credited to my account next month.

(5) Generally the price of my counters has dropped a lot from last month. However, i am not worry on this as i believe the business fundamental of my holding is still intact and their business valuation is still far below their business value for the time being. Will just collect dividend at the time being.

(6) Will continue to accumulate my war chest and should learn to be very selective in making any purchase for my next counter. Once i have found a counter meets my Buying Criteria, i shall invest in a meaningful sum into the counter.

(7) After gone through this Q reports, i filtered out 3 counters which i quite like: ISDN, Singapore Medical Group, and The Hour Glass. I have not gone into details yet....shall do so in the nearer future.




Monday, May 7, 2018

My Portfolio Management - Building & Sitting On CASH!


Investing for me: owning a business

Holding period: infinite (or longer time horizon)

Monetary gains: working towards achieving my 1st million of profit thru investing as soon as possible

Strategy:
1. To search for brilliant business with good economic moats, being managed under good management team, and is offering at bargain price.

2. To continue building and sitting on cash so at any moment an opportunity arises, i can act fast!
(I need to really work harder on this!)


“It takes character to sit with all that cash and to do nothing.
I didn't get top where I am by going after mediocre opportunities.” -  Charles T. Munger

Saturday, April 28, 2018

What will i do with my Sunningdale shares?

Sunningdale share price has been dropping sharply for these past few days from the average price of $1.90 on the 2nd April to $1.27 as per yesterday closing price (about 33% drop).

When the share price of a counter i am holding has been moving drastically up or down in a short period of time, i will have to reassess my thesis in the company (my based will only be on the fundamental of the company for long term hold):

(1) The sustainable business model attracts me to own this company for longer term,

(2) Solid balance sheet, consistently generates cash flow in the business every year,

(3) Consistently looking for improvement operation costs either by consolidating its under-performed plants in similar locations or adding new plants to those areas which are able to bring more efficiency to their operation costs,

(4) Year to Year comparison on business performance on Revenue, Gross Profit, Net Profit, Cash, Debts, Dividend per share and Forex (loss)/gain for the past 5 years:


Full Year
Revenue SGD ('000)
Gross Profit SGD ('000)
Net Profit
SGD ('000)
Cash
SGD ('000)
Debts
SGD ('000)
Dividend per Share
SGD (Cents)
Forex (loss)/gain
SGD ('000)
2013
476,003
55,402
13,649
79,215
59,753
3.5000
(316)
2014
475,613
59,928
27,676
104,833
137,020
4.0000
1,427
2015
674,464
90,842
42,104
121,113
120,000
5.0000
12,849
2016
684,457
94,335
39,071
115,255
99,758
6.0000
8,952
2017
724,545
105,533
31,360
105,281
103,680
7.0000
(10,647)
*Q12018
168,974
21,409
1,940
105,448
106,556
-
(5,205)

1. Revenue has been increasing YoY.
2. *Q12018 revenue dropped 1.6% QoQ or $2,807,000. If the exchange rate of the US Dollar and the Euro remained at the Q12017 rates, Q12018 revenue would has been $173,474,000 or about 1% increased from Q12017 and the GP margin would has been 14%.
3. Excluding foreign exchange loss, retrenchment costs and gains from the disposal of plant, property and equipment (“PPE”), net profit would have been $7.1 million for Q12018.
4. The Group reported an increase in revenue from all business segments except for the Consumer/IT segment. The decrease in revenue from the Consumer/IT segment was due to a decline in demand from end customers for certain projects, project end-of-life and new projects which have yet to commence the ramp up phase. This also caused the GP margin to be decreased to 12.7%. 
5. Construction of the Group’s latest manufacturing site in Penang, Malaysia has been completed and is in the midst of doing pilot runs for mass production in the Consumer/IT segment that is scheduled for ramp up in the second half of 2018.
6. If i sum up the forex (loss)/gain for the past 5.25 years, the Forex (loss)/gain will result in the gain of $7,060,000.

As i have mentioned in my post before, my investment knowledge is really very little, as so my business knowledge. 
Apart from the reports or announcements they made via SGX, how much more i know about Sunningdale business environment, the challenges they are facing including volatility of foreign exchange markets and rising labour costs accross their 20 plants in 9 different countries? their operation efficiency in 20 plants with thousands of headcount involved? 

Am i able to translate all the contents of their reports precisely?

Can i trust their management completely?

Do i have faith in their business going forward?

Do i think Sunningdale will still be around and surviving in the plastic business world in the next 5 - 10 years down the road?

My guess is as good as everyone's guess.

Having said all that, i still have faith in this company and i strongly think the current business valuation of $240mil is still far undervalued comparing to their business fundamentals as per shown so far. 


* Above are just my thoughts. The accuracy or completeness of the information above cannot be guaranteed.