Thursday, October 4, 2018

Singapore Medical Group (SingMedical)


I bought 112,000 shares of SingMedical at average price of about 43.71cts per share.

My projected minimum guaranteed yearly net profit of SingMedical going forward (at least 5 years):

(1) Ciputra Eye Indonesia: $60,000.
(2) Astra Women Clinic: $4,615.000.
(3) Cancer Centre: $2,400.000.
(4) Kids Clinic: $2,300.000.
(5) Baby & Children Specialist Clinic: $1,000.000.
(6) Pheniks: $500,000.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total: $10,875,000.

Below might have some contributions going forward:

(1) CHA (Vietnam & Australia market).
(2) Novena Radiology & Lifescan Imaging.
(3) New dental clinics.


What am i buying into SingMedical?

(1) SingMedical aims to be a Medical Disruptor in medical industry, especially in Singapore:
- to provide one stop solution for women & children's segment.
- to bring down the cost since they want to have centralised and owned imaging centres.
- to have tele-medicine platform that both local and patients across the region will use to consult with their specialists throughout their treatment cycle.

(2) They are in the women & children's segment which is one of the biggest market in medical industry.

(3) Most of their doctors/specialists who joined them through acquisition, have some shares in SingMedical.

(4) SingMedical wants to grow through "acquire & grow aggressively" strategy.

(5) They have a wide pool of medical specialists network.

(6) My purchase price of 43.71cts per share, market valution is about 210mil. 
With a minimum guaranteed yearly net profit of $10,875,000, PE is about 19.3X.
1H2018 net profit = $6,827,000. With straight line projection, FY2018 net profit will be $13,6mil, FY2018 PE will be about 15X. Medical industry averagely has PE of above 20X.



Portfolio Value as per October 2018


No.
Counters
No of Shares
Market Price
per Share
(SGD)
Total Value
(SGD)
1
AEM
48,000$0.820$39,360.00
2Best World50,000$1.490$74,500.00
3Centurion50,000$0.435$21,750.00
4Innotek190,000$0.420$79,800.00
5SingMedical112,000$0.455$50,960.00
6
Sunningdale
60,000$1.510$90,600.00
7
Tat Seng
Packaging
50,000$0.670$33,500.00
8
Cash


$11,670.27





TOTAL:$402,140.27


(1) I have skipped to post my portfolio value for the month of August & September as there were not much buying/selling.

(2) Cleared all my Chasen holding, even though the company seems to be good and has prospect to run up, i will just stick to my own stock criteria.

(3) Bought 2 new counters: Centurion at the cost of about 42.75cts per share & Singapore Medical Group at cost of about 43.71cts per share.





Saturday, August 25, 2018

Business Valuation


What is Business Valuation and How do i value the business that i am holding?


The fluctuation of my portfolio value from one month to the other has been forcing me to think hard and thoroughly about my valuation method in valuing businesses.

Sunningdale's share price had reached its peak of about $2.40 per share a few months ago and has dropped down to $1.40 per share as per current price (my paper profit has also dropped down by $60k).

AEM'share price had reached its peak of about $1.90 per share a few months ago and has dropped down to $0.83 per share as per current price (my paper profit has also dropped down by $50k).

Have i been wrong in valuing the businesses i am holding so that i have missed out the opportunity to take profit earlier? 

Have my portfolio management and allocation been wrong so that i have less cash to add more to those businesses that their shares price have been hit down tremendously while the business fundamental remains strong?

Have i selected the wrong businesses which are not suitable to my personality and i do not understand them?

Have i been not knowing enough that i do not know a lot of thing about the businesses i am investing in so i have failed to act correctly?

Is my current strategy correct and i just need to make some adjustments to it?

These questions have been running around in my head for minutes....hours.....
days.....nights.....weeks.....months..........still .....I do not have the answer yet.

I am still searching......trying to fix the puzzles.............

I think only time will be able to tell. 

Investing is a journey, it is a process. 

Investing is Not a destination. 

I have to keep thinking, improving my investment system with on-going experiences in many business cycles.


In this post, I will only talk about Business Valuation which is related to my First Question above.

Have i been wrong in valuing the business i am holding so that i have missed out the opportunity to take profit earlier? 

Recently i read an article about the Interview between Forbes with Prof Aswath Damodaran about business valuation. 

The link of the article is here:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kevinharris/2018/07/17/professor-aswath-damodaran-on-valuation/


Below are few important points i have noted them down:

What is Valuation?

1. Digging through a business,

2. Understand the business,

3. Understand its cash flow,

4. Growth,

5. Risk.

And try to attach a number to the business.


Risk is a very important part in valuing a business.


In today's market, we have to think the Risk of:

1. Risk premium of the market we are in,

2. Risk premium of the rest of the world,

3. Risk currencies and how we use them in valuation,

4. Risk in business life cycle which has shortened in today market, e.g. Yahoo has started from a small startup to a successful company and to no company in 25 years.


In investing:

(1) Philosophy is more important than technique,

(2) Self introspection,

(3) Build our own investment philosophy,

(4) Think through what we think about the market,

(5) Try to figure out why companies are doing what they are doing rather than what other people think about companies or what other people think about investing.

To always keep our eyes on economic growth, as long as the economic growth is solid and able to backup the valuation of US or market equities, the valuation is still ok.


I also have signed up Investment Quadrant with TheFifthPerson recently, and i noted them down a few Valuation Models from TheFifthPerson:

(1) Fast Grower (Unstable Cash Flow): PEG (PE to Growth rate)

(2) Predictable Earnings: PE

(3) Asset Heavy: PB (Price to Book)

(4) Cyclical Industry: Price to Sales

(5) Predictable Cash Flow: Discounted Cash Flow

(6) Earnings Distorted by Depreciation/Amortization: Price to Cash Flow


To be continued..............................................................





Wednesday, July 25, 2018

My Investment System Reflection - 2


What kind of Selling Strategy should i implement in my BSPA?


Before buying into a company, i should do my homework to read the company's quarterly & Annual reports to derive my Intrinsic Value of the company for 4 years ahead.

How do i do that?

(1) I am buying this company for it falls into which category of my Investing?
1. Value Growth?
2. Deep Value?
3. Dividend?

(2) Which industry does this company falls into?
1. Food & Beverages?
2. Consumer Products?
3. Manufacturing?
4. Semi-conductor?
5. Information Technology?
6. etc

(3) What is the industrial PE for the past 10 years?

(4) What is the average PE for her peers?

(5) How is the historical Revenue and the projected growth going 3 - 4 years forward?

(6) How is the historical Profit and Profit Margin and the projected growth going 3 - 4 years forward?

(7) How is the historical Cash Flow and the projected growth going 3 - 4 years forward?

(8) How is the historical Dividend yield and how many % of the Net Profit be converted into dividend and growth, and the projected growth going 3 - 4 years forward?

(9) What is historical ROE for the past 5 years and the projected ROE growth going 3 -4 years forward?

(10) What is the intrinsic value of the company going 3 -4 years forward? 

One of the way to calculate the intrinsic value is to use Buffet Intrinsic Calculator from:
buffettsbooks.com/howtoinvestinstocks/course2/stocks/intrinsic-value-calculator.html#sthash.jEhBZTtD.dpbs

(11) At how many % discounted Intrinsic Value should i divest my shares?

(12) Divest partially or fully?

(13) Different category of Investing will have different Assessment of Selling Strategy.

(14) Will i buy back the share once divested?

(15) Will i average down when it drops to certain %?

(16) How many will i average down and how much cash i am holding?




Monday, July 23, 2018

My Investment System Reflection - 1


My portfolio value had reached its peak at about $530k mid of April and fell all the way down to about $380k mid of June. It was just 2 months away, my portfolio value had been up and down in 30% variation.

This tells that investing in stock market will never be easy. It involves human emotion: greed, fearful, daring, worry, eagerness, willing and unwilling, and all macro issues around us.

As for me, i am doing my best to create a System for my Investment - will call it BSPA.
A system that is able to work well and make me sleep well at anytime in the market: bull or bear.


How does BSPA work?

BSPA stands for Buying Selling Portfolio Allocation.

These 3 things are very important in order to create and maintain a Sustainable Portfolio.
I just want to focus on BSPA - the things i can control.


(1) Buying Strategy:

I should allocate a specified percentage of my portfolio to every counter. 

Case Study (example):
I am 35 years old and holding 500k in cash.
I wish to buy Tat Seng Packaging as it meets my Buying Criteria from the System.
(1) List down all the criteria in buying Tat Seng
(2) Set an intrinsic value for Tat Seng: e.g $1.20 per share.
(3) Will allocate 10% of my cash into this company.
(4) First time i will buy 50% of my allocation: (50% X $50,000 = $25,000 ) = 31,500 shares at $0.80 per share.
(5) If the share price continues to go up to $1.00 - do nothing.
(6) If the share price falls about 10% ($0.72) from my initial cost, i will add 10% of my remaining (10% X $25,000 = $2,500 ) = 3,500 shares at $0.72 per share.
(7) If the share price falls another 20% ($0.56), will add another 40%: (40% X $22,500 = $9,000)  = 16,000 shares at $0.56 per share.
(8) If the share price falls another 20% ($0.40), will add another 40% : (40% X 13,500 = $5,400) = 13,500 shares at $0.40 per share.
(9) If the share price falls another 20% ($0.24), will add all the remaining amount ($8,100) = 33,750 shares at $0.24 per share.


(2) Selling Strategy:
Before buying the company, i should set a target selling price based on the last FY reports, quarterly reports to derive:

(1) I am buying for which category? ValueGrowth? Deep Value? or Dividend?
(2) Intrinsic Value of company based on all the numbers including dividend.
(3) Maybe i am more comfortable with intrinsic value of 4 years going forward.
(4) PE, Sales Growth, ROE, Free Cash Flow, and Dividend are major components in deciding when to sell.
(5) How should i partially/fully divest the shares? --- will cover more on this in my next post.


(3) Portfolio Allocation:
1. How many % of portfolio in every company?
2. How many % of cash to deploy at 1st time buying?
3. How many % of cash to deploy to average down? 
4. How many % of cash during bull market? when the valuation of my companies reach high market value? - cash holding should be high here.
5. How many % of cash during bear market? when the valuation of my companies are undervalued? - cash holding should be low here.







My Sytem Modification 1


1. Investing is a PROCESS, a Journey and it is NOT a destination.

2. NEVER add/average UP a company with ROE lower than 15% (low ROE)!

3. Do NOT let GREED taking over our calculation based on data.



Buying a Company:

The 1st thesis of investment:

(1) Value Growth? - good balance sheet, good business model, good management, ROE > 15%

(2) Deep Value? - good balance sheet, good management, stability of business/revenue, ROE < 10%.

(3) Asset Value? - good balance sheet with undervalued price to asset value.

(4) Dividend? - good balance sheet, good business model, good management, ROE is very low .


When the share price has been up tremendously, i should periodically check back with my 1st thesis in purchasing this company:

(1) Am i buying for value growth? deep value? asset value? (this is not my criteria) or dividend?

(2) When i invest for value growth, i should hold longer term.

(3) When investing for deep value, should tabulate the numbers in terms of ROE in a systematic model year by year based on the past 5 years to derive the historical ROE, comparing the PE with historical PE in the industry, and its peers' PE.

(4) I should always set a target price every year after financial reports are out.








Friday, July 20, 2018

Portfolio Value as per July 2018


No.
Counters
No of Shares
Market Price
per Share
(SGD)
Total Value
(SGD)
1
AEM
48,000$1.100$52,800.00
2Avi-Tech100,000$0.380$38,000.00
3Best World50,000$1.310$65,500.00
4Chasen300,000$0.076$22,800.00
5Innotek190,000$0.400$76,000.00
6
Sunningdale
60,000$1.360$81,600.00
7
Tat Seng
Packaging
50,000$0.690$34,500.00
8
Cash


$24,556.80





TOTAL:$395,756.80


(1) Bought back Chasen after some considerations.

(2) I have been doing some self reflection for these past few weeks to restructure my strategy again. My buying - selling - buying Chasen acts have not been really pleasing to my Investment Strategy.

- Reading "Rich Dad's Prophecy - Why The Biggest Stock Market Crash In History Is Still Coming" by Robert Kiyosaki.

- Listening to Webinar of TheFifthPerson.

(3) Going forward i really need to improve the following areas:

1. Portfolio Management - portfolio allocation (including % in certain sector, cash portion).

2. How to value a company and to divest partially when the business is in discounted valuation (maybe 80% from my target valuation?)

3. To read more in detail of company Annual Report.

4. To explore more in my analysis, found out from TheFifthPerson's webinar to use www.marketft.com/data/equities to know more on the peers comparison, etc.






Monday, June 25, 2018

Warren Buffett's Gems


Some of Buffett's gems which i wish to keep reminding myself:


"If you buy things you do not need, soon you will have to sell things you need."

"Do not save what is left after spending, but spend what is left after saving."

"If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die."

"You only have to do a very few things right in your life, so long as you don't do too many things wrong."

"I don't look to jump over 7-foot bars; I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over."

"The most important investment you can make is in yourself."

"Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble."

"Predicting rain doesn't count. Building arks does."

"Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre."




Sunday, June 24, 2018

Portfolio Value as per June 2018

No.
Counters
No of Shares
Market Price
per Share
(SGD)
Total Value
(SGD)
1
AEM
48,000$1.150$55,200.00
2Avi-Tech100,000$0.390$39,000.00
3Best World50,000$1.320$66,000.00
4Innotek190,000$0.355$67,450.00
5Sunningdale60,000$1.330$79,800.00
6
Tat Seng
Packaging
50,000$0.725$36,250.00
7
Cash


$46,656.80









TOTAL:$390,356.80

(1) I have divested Chasen.

(2) Total dividend collected for HY2018: $8,580.

(3) Accumulating my war chest.

(4) Do not intend to add any counters yet as i have not find any good buy.....shall be patient and very careful in my next purchase (if any).






Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Portfolio Value as per May 2018

No.
Counters
No of Shares
Market Price
per Share
(SGD)
Total Value
(SGD)
1
AEM
12,000$1.480$17,760.00
2Avi-Tech100,000$0.405$40,500.00
3Best World50,000$1.240$62,000.00
4Chasen400,000$0.690$27,600.00
5Innotek190,000$0.365$69,350.00
6Sunningdale60,000$1.270$76,200.00
7
Tat Seng
Packaging
50,000$0.800$40,000.00
8
Cash


$16,042.75





TOTAL:$349,452.75

(1) I have divested all my 800 Super with a profit of about 15% including of dividend.
I think 800 Super business is still good, but the ratio between cash and debts is really too low, so i have decided to divest it. Should it able to generate more cash in the future and lower their debts, i might be looking into it again.

(2) Added 20,000 shares of Tat Seng Packaging.

(3) I plan to divest all my Chasen holding early next month after their FY report is out. I will sell off all my shares regardless of the share price. Chasen is also not my cup of tea, i hope i will learn a lesson here.

(4) I have 36,000 shares of AEM will be credited to my account next month.

(5) Generally the price of my counters has dropped a lot from last month. However, i am not worry on this as i believe the business fundamental of my holding is still intact and their business valuation is still far below their business value for the time being. Will just collect dividend at the time being.

(6) Will continue to accumulate my war chest and should learn to be very selective in making any purchase for my next counter. Once i have found a counter meets my Buying Criteria, i shall invest in a meaningful sum into the counter.

(7) After gone through this Q reports, i filtered out 3 counters which i quite like: ISDN, Singapore Medical Group, and The Hour Glass. I have not gone into details yet....shall do so in the nearer future.




Monday, May 7, 2018

My Portfolio Management - Building & Sitting On CASH!


Investing for me: owning a business

Holding period: infinite (or longer time horizon)

Monetary gains: working towards achieving my 1st million of profit thru investing as soon as possible

Strategy:
1. To search for brilliant business with good economic moats, being managed under good management team, and is offering at bargain price.

2. To continue building and sitting on cash so at any moment an opportunity arises, i can act fast!
(I need to really work harder on this!)


“It takes character to sit with all that cash and to do nothing.
I didn't get top where I am by going after mediocre opportunities.” -  Charles T. Munger

Saturday, April 28, 2018

What will i do with my Sunningdale shares?

Sunningdale share price has been dropping sharply for these past few days from the average price of $1.90 on the 2nd April to $1.27 as per yesterday closing price (about 33% drop).

When the share price of a counter i am holding has been moving drastically up or down in a short period of time, i will have to reassess my thesis in the company (my based will only be on the fundamental of the company for long term hold):

(1) The sustainable business model attracts me to own this company for longer term,

(2) Solid balance sheet, consistently generates cash flow in the business every year,

(3) Consistently looking for improvement operation costs either by consolidating its under-performed plants in similar locations or adding new plants to those areas which are able to bring more efficiency to their operation costs,

(4) Year to Year comparison on business performance on Revenue, Gross Profit, Net Profit, Cash, Debts, Dividend per share and Forex (loss)/gain for the past 5 years:


Full Year
Revenue SGD ('000)
Gross Profit SGD ('000)
Net Profit
SGD ('000)
Cash
SGD ('000)
Debts
SGD ('000)
Dividend per Share
SGD (Cents)
Forex (loss)/gain
SGD ('000)
2013
476,003
55,402
13,649
79,215
59,753
3.5000
(316)
2014
475,613
59,928
27,676
104,833
137,020
4.0000
1,427
2015
674,464
90,842
42,104
121,113
120,000
5.0000
12,849
2016
684,457
94,335
39,071
115,255
99,758
6.0000
8,952
2017
724,545
105,533
31,360
105,281
103,680
7.0000
(10,647)
*Q12018
168,974
21,409
1,940
105,448
106,556
-
(5,205)

1. Revenue has been increasing YoY.
2. *Q12018 revenue dropped 1.6% QoQ or $2,807,000. If the exchange rate of the US Dollar and the Euro remained at the Q12017 rates, Q12018 revenue would has been $173,474,000 or about 1% increased from Q12017 and the GP margin would has been 14%.
3. Excluding foreign exchange loss, retrenchment costs and gains from the disposal of plant, property and equipment (“PPE”), net profit would have been $7.1 million for Q12018.
4. The Group reported an increase in revenue from all business segments except for the Consumer/IT segment. The decrease in revenue from the Consumer/IT segment was due to a decline in demand from end customers for certain projects, project end-of-life and new projects which have yet to commence the ramp up phase. This also caused the GP margin to be decreased to 12.7%. 
5. Construction of the Group’s latest manufacturing site in Penang, Malaysia has been completed and is in the midst of doing pilot runs for mass production in the Consumer/IT segment that is scheduled for ramp up in the second half of 2018.
6. If i sum up the forex (loss)/gain for the past 5.25 years, the Forex (loss)/gain will result in the gain of $7,060,000.

As i have mentioned in my post before, my investment knowledge is really very little, as so my business knowledge. 
Apart from the reports or announcements they made via SGX, how much more i know about Sunningdale business environment, the challenges they are facing including volatility of foreign exchange markets and rising labour costs accross their 20 plants in 9 different countries? their operation efficiency in 20 plants with thousands of headcount involved? 

Am i able to translate all the contents of their reports precisely?

Can i trust their management completely?

Do i have faith in their business going forward?

Do i think Sunningdale will still be around and surviving in the plastic business world in the next 5 - 10 years down the road?

My guess is as good as everyone's guess.

Having said all that, i still have faith in this company and i strongly think the current business valuation of $240mil is still far undervalued comparing to their business fundamentals as per shown so far. 


* Above are just my thoughts. The accuracy or completeness of the information above cannot be guaranteed. 

Monday, April 16, 2018

Turning cents into dollars (small change book 2)


I just finished reading "Turning cents into dollars (small change book 2) by Goh Eng Yeow.

This is a compilation of articles written by Mr Goh Eng Yeow into a book.

Below are some of the contents from the book - to remind myself:

(1) Doing good brings goodness
Compassion is a two-way street. Those touched by compassion will reach out to help others. Indeed, many go beyond donating money or goods to adopting charitable causes, giving generously of their time to teach poor children or help out at an old folks' home.
Our lives would be assessed, not based on dollars, but on the people whose lives we have touched.
It is an affirmation that what goes around comes around. By doing good, we will be rewarded with goodness.

(2) Knowing when enough is enough to get by
Being wealthy is not necessarily about having lots of money. Rather, it is about holding plenty of cash, and being able to maintain your standard of living and take care of your family without facing the risk of running out of money.

(3) What it takes to be rich
Sure, most of us believe that the more money we have, the happier we will be. But if we really want to have a fulfilling life, it is not the wealth we have accumulated that matters. It is how we spend it that counts. Wealth should not just be measured in material terms. As the ancient Greek philosopher Epicurus once opined: "Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants."

(4) Keep good friends - and good stocks
True friendship also applies to investing. Too often, as soon as an investor buys a stock, he is already planning an exit strategy, as he looks at how to dump the newly purchased stock. Of course, taking profit is not a bad thing. But simply selling a stock because we have made a quick buck misses the point about investing.
So, just like having lifelong friends, it may not be difficult to achieve extraordinary returns by buying the shares of good companies with which we are comfortable, and then to hold on to them.

(5) The best investors stay hard-headed
There will always be ups and downs in the market. The best investors stay hard-headed about the risks they can handle and the returns they want.

(6) Lessons from the financial crisis
China's late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping once said: "It doesn't matter whether a cat is black or white. A cat that catches mice is a good cat." Investors should view the stock market in a similar way: It doesn't matter whether it is a bull or a bear market. As long as one makes money, it is a good market.
Investors should remember that they are putting their capital at risk when they invest in order to make money. Legendary investor Warren Buffet once summed it up as:
Rule No. 1: Never lose money.
Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.

(7) Tips for the novice investor
Financial advice for young & novice investors: Work hard, spend little, and invest the difference.
Dollar-cost average for your entirely life and you'll beat almost everyone who doesn't. What this means is to invest the same sum in the stock every month, or even consider buying more of it when the market is down and less when it is up. Over the long term, this will ensure that you buy low and sell high. Of course, this advice applies only if you are buying into stocks whose earning capabilities have been proven beyond the shadow of a doubt over the years.
Investing is simple but never easy. The mantra is to start early enough - and to stick to solid assets which you understand.

(8) Trump your inner miser
In order to stay the course and add to our investments over the years, we must keep up the rigorous discipline of ignoring the "noises" sent out by a stock's short-term trading patterns and the overall market trend. Part of the problem comes from the myopic focus of research reports put out by stock analysts as they chase a company's next earnings numbers.
Sure, such information is useful but what determines a company's long-term fair value is the dynamic of its earnings growth, and not the size of its short-term profits.

(9) If in doubt, sell half
There are times when a company is unloved, for whatever reason, even though it enjoys good business fundamentals. This is reflected by its depressed share price. It may take a long time before it is priced correctly. In the meantime, it can be frustrating and painful for investors who are right about the company at the wrong time.
For so many investors, it may be the tallying of votes - what other people think of the stock - that matters a lot more than the weighing machine Mr Graham talked about.
There is another analogy for investors who take much shorter view on their investments, one enunciated by another great investor, the British economist John Maynard Keynes. He described investment as a beauty contest with a difference. To guess the winner, what is important is not to select who you believe to be the most beautiful contestant but to guess at how the judges will rate the various contestants. Seen in that light, successful investing is really a lot more psychology that anything else, a process of coming to grips with your won emotions as well as others'.
Mr Goh's answer to any investor who is confronted with a dilemma over taking profit on this winning bet or cutting loss on a plunging stock, is to sell half of it. Selling half of the investment will release the psychological logjam that comes from trying to decide whether to keep the investment or get rid of it completely. He can then analyse why he bought the stock in the first place, and whether to hold the remaining shares, sell them or buy more.

(10) In investing, stick to the best companies
Legendary investment guru Warren Buffet has made the wry observation that "when a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact".
So, in any successful investment strategy, the key rules are: buy into only the best companies, stick to business sectors which enjoy predictable earnings and higher-than-average growth, and pay a fair price for the investment. The principles may sound simple but sticking to them is easier said than done.

(11) The case for buying Asian stocks
According to billionaire US fund manager Howard Marks: "Sometimes, emerging markets are considered to be scary and exotic places, and sometimes, they are the attractive high-growth alternative to the stagnant developed world."
The importance of making the right call on emerging markets, or any investment for that matter, is to understand that a stock price is affected in a big way by investor behavior. He said: "We want to buy when prices seem attractive. But if investors are giddy and optimism is rampant, we have to consider whether a better buying opportunity might not come along later."
Hence, the important point to bear in mind is that in good times, investors tend to chase after assets till they hit prices well beyond reason. But when a financial calamity occurs, prices tend to be depressed to unreasonable levels.
So, remember to apply caution in investing in the attractive but volatile Asian markets. While stock prices look attractive today, they may become even more attractive tomorrow if investors' sentiment sours.

(12) The attractions of dividend stocks
Investors should consider:
- The company has a business model with the cash flow to sustain further their dividend in the future. After all, a company with a solid business and a long history of making - or increasing - dividend payout is likely to stick to its track record of doing so.
- The dividend payout ratio. This is the proportion of earnings which a company pays out as dividend. As a rule, it is better to invest in companies whose dividend payout ratios do not exceed 50 percent of its earnings. This will ensure that the company has the ability to maintain the same payout, even if its business should suffer an unexpected downturn.
- A company's debt servicing ratio - the amount of cash it uses to service the interest payment on its debts. This is to ensure that the company is not borrowing heavily to pay out the dividend - a ploy that will prove unsustainable.




Friday, April 13, 2018

Portfolio Value as per April 2018

No.
Counters
No of Shares
Market Price
per Share
(SGD)
Total Value
(SGD)
1
800 Super
20,000 $1.140 $22,800.00
2 AEM 12,000 $6.960 $83,520.00
3 Avi-Tech 100,000 $0.485 $48,500.00
4 Best World 50,000 $1.720 $86,000.00
5 Chasen 400,000 $0.071 $28,400.00
6 Innotek 190,000 $0.440 $83,600.00
7 Sunningdale 60,000 $1.830 $109,800.00
8
Tat Seng
Packaging
30,000 $0.800 $24,000.00
9 Cash $5,084.60

TOTAL: $491,704.60

(1) I have divested all my Trek 2000 shares at the price of about $0.24 per share. Taking a loss of about $3,500 excluding the broker fees. Trek 2000 is still a good company which has potential to grow more in future. They are also giving a dividend of 1cts per share with the yield of about 4.3%.
The reasons for my divestment are because i am not very comfortable with their accounting issues which are not closed yet until now and also part of my holding consolidation plan to have about 7-8 counters the most. I will keep Trek 2000 in my watchlist, if the circumtances have changed, i might be interested again in the future.

(2) Added 60,000 shares of Innotek at about $0.42cents per share. Will try to share more on this company in my next post. Up to date, Innotek is my biggest invested capital in terms of dollar values into a single counter.




Monday, April 9, 2018

Some notes for my investment journey...


The company with the highest profit margin is by definition the lowest cost operator, as the lowest cost operator has a better chance of survival if business conditions deteriorate.

When investing, we are looking for a relatively High Profit Margin for a Long Term Holding stock and a relatively Low Profit Margin for a Turn Around stock.


How inflation will effect the share price?

Inflation will lead to low earning or profit to a company. Inflation means too much money is in the market that leads to money's value become lower, material cost become higher. With higher overhead, profit margin become lower. With lower price earning ratio, people/investor become less interested to shares, the share price will fall.

What is the sign of inflation?
1. Commodity Price (oil, rubber, steel) increase.
2. Interest rate high
People do not wish to borrow loan with a high interest, then business is hard to expand, economic growth is under control. High interest is to control inflation.






Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Portfolio Value as per March 2018











No. Counters No of Shares    Market Price        per Share             (SGD) Total Value (SGD)

1 800 Super 20,000 $1.100 $22,000.00

2 AEM 12,000 $7.150 $85,800.00

3 Avi-Tech 100,000 $0.505 $50,500.00

4 Best World 50,000 $1.640 $82,000.00

5 Chasen 400,000 $0.069 $27,600.00

6 Innotek 130,000 $0.420 $54,600.00

7 Sunningdale 60,000 $1.830 $109,800.00

8 Tat Seng Packaging 30,000 $0.795 $23,850.00

9 Trek 2000 Intl 100,000 $0.265 $26,500.00

10 Cash

$3,753.98




TOTAL: $486,403.98








The reporting season for financial report ending December 2017 has just ended last week.

As usual, i have screened through hundreds of reports to check if i can find any new companies which meet my buying criteria.

(1) I bought Tat Seng Packaging at an average price of 82.50cents last month. I like this company for their old type of business, improving top & bottom lines, and their balance sheet. I might be adding more if the price drops below 70cents.

(2) A good friend of mine who introduced me to stock market, highlighted "Chasen" to me. Honestly, Chasen is not my cup of tea, however, i think at current price it is quite undervalued (provided management is able to maintain their profit trend). I bought this more to their assets and their low PE. Will wait for their 4th Q result and decide on my holding. 

(3) Sold off all Frencken holding with a profit of 59.3% from my cost price. Holding period is about 9 months (bought in May 2017 @39cts and sold in February 2018 @62.10cts). Frencken is a good company, but i have decided to sell off as i already have Sunningdale and i think part of their business is quite similar. 

(4) Sold off all Ellipsiz. Profiting from their dividend with total profit of about 12.5% from my initial cost. I think Ellipsiz at current price is still a good hold and does not have much valued risk. Decided to sell this off as moving my fund to other counter which i think is able to give me better return in the longer run.

(5) Added 10,000 Sunningdale shares at about $1.815/share last month.


Overall, all my counters have reported good and satisfactory results. I am quite happy with them. After much careful considerations of their business going forward against current market valuation, i have decided to continue holding for the time being. However, if the current valuation has gone up too much comparing to their business growth rate, i might re-access them and decide again. So far, no action has been taken yet...




* Above are just my thoughts. The accuracy or completeness of the information above cannot be guaranteed.





Friday, February 2, 2018

Margin of Safety - How Important Is It in Investing?


Margin of Safety (MoS) is the only thing which i hold and am trying to hold firmly when selecting a company to invest in:


(1) MoS is the difference between the Intrinsic Value of a Stock and its Market Price.

(2) Could be used to prevent the Market Price for much volatility (even though we are not able to predict the movement of the market from time to time).

(3) Cash, Operating Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow, Current Ratio, Debt to Equity Ratio, GP Margin, NP Margin, The Consistency of Revenue & Profit QoQ & YoY - are used as a Quantitative Metric in my selection of stock.

(4) Future Plan of the business (short & long term), Vision & Mission, Business Strategy, Management Team - are used as a Qualitative Metric.

Portfolio Value as per February 2018









No. Counters No of Shares    Market Price       per Share             (SGD) Total Value (SGD)

1 800 Super 20,000 $1.190 $23,800.00

2 AEM 12,000 $5.500 $66,000.00

3 Avi-Tech 100,000 $0.500 $50,000.00

4 Best World 50,000 $1.360 $68,000.00

5 Ellipsiz 30,000 $0.790 $23,700.00

6 Frencken 75,000 $0.660 $49,500.00

7 Innotek 130,000 $0.430 $55,900.00

8 Sunning dale 50,000 $1.990 $99,500.00

9 Trek 2000 Intl 100,000 $0.260 $26,000.00

10 Cash

$134.18




TOTAL: $462,534.18








I made some changes to my holding:

(1) Sold 25,000 shares of Frencken.

(2) Sold 10,000 shares of Trek 2000 Intl.

(3) Add another 2,000 shares of AEM @$4.29/share: i think with recent announcement of their Revenue & Profit guidances & acquisition of Ofore Oy, AEM still has potential to grow more. Looking forward their FY report end of this month.

(4) Add another 50,000 shares of Innotek @42.50cts/share: they expansion to Weihai factory to support Hewlett-Packard production in China could be one of the catalysts for Innotek to move better in the near future. Trading below their NTA, with a cash pile of about 47,3mil (cash + investment held by bank), i am quite confident this will give me some margin of safety.



* Above are just my thoughts. The accuracy or completeness of the information above cannot be guaranteed.










Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Looking for a good Undervalued Business which has Potential to Grow Big


One of my New Year resolution in the finance side will be Looking for a good undervalued business which has potential to grow big in the future.

I will continue to search this kind of company from our local listed company. However, when i am unable to find one that i like and meets my criteria, i might be going into NYSE or Nasdaq to look for one. Will update more on this in next couple of months.


I will have to do a lot of homework now......wish me all the best!!!

3 Things that have driven me to enjoy Stock Investing


First of all, i must really thank my friend for introducing me to stock market. So far i have really been enjoying buying shares of companies based on my buying criteria.

I think there are 3 Things that have driven me to enjoy Stock Investing so far:

(1) Investing like owning a Business. I can say i am a business person and i enjoy doing business (those kind of industry which i am comfortable with) - will share more on this when i have time.

(2) To earn more money for my family (parents, children, or brothers/sisters).

(3) To have financial freedom so that i do not really have to think about my monthly expenses then i can have more time to do other things that i like (e.g. spending more time with my loved ones, social works, sports, etc).

Tuesday, January 9, 2018

Portfolio Value as per December 2017










No. Counters No of Shares   Market Price/     Share (SGD) Total Value (SGD)

1
800 Super  
20,000 $1.150 $23,000.00

2
AEM
10,000 $3.350 $33,500.00

3 Avi-Tech 100,000 $0.475 $47,500.00

4 Best World 50,000 $1.320 $66,000.00

5 Ellipsiz 30,000 $0.740 $22,200.00

6 Frencken 100,000 $0.540 $54,000.00

7 Innotek 80,000 $0.360 $28,800.00

8 Sunning dale 50,000 $1.930 $96,500.00

9 Trek 2000 Intl 110,000 $0.270 $29,700.00

10 Cash

$1,754.18




TOTAL: $402,954.18







It has been 7 years since i started to get to know about Investing in stock market. I started my investment with the capital of about $2k seven years ago. I added some capital & dividend received along the way. I am going to work much harder this year to review my holding, especially those companies which are going to report their full year financial performance in February next month. I might be selling those counters which i think the valuation is right for me to sell. I might also shorten my electronics counters since i am holding majority of them.