Sunday, November 6, 2016

Bear Market, Panicked Selling ----- as a Business Investor, what should i do?

Bear market can happen in yearly season such as starting from May in most of a calendar year, the peak of the bear can be in October/November as these were the months majority market crashes happened in the past. It can also happen because of many reasons/events happening worldwide: Brexit, currently US Presidential Election, in 2017 we will have many presidential elections including Germany and French. All these events eventually might affect the market reaction.

As a long term investor, i should not try to predict the market from all these events.

What i have to focus on are:

(1) The fundamental of the company i am investing in, to read through their financial reports every quarter and yearly, if possible to do some scuttlebutt approaches.

(2) To keep accumulating my war chest ready, either by keeping money from my sold shares, dividends, or from the injection of capital.

(3) Stick to my current holding which i deem they are still undervalued in terms of their business value, whilst waiting for the bull market to takeover.

(4) When the bear market has really seemed to be bottom, e.g. the share price of my current holding has dropped to 30% below my initial cost, i should make use of this opportunity to load more shares using my war chest. But i should add in bit by bit.

(5) I should NEVER liquidate my portfolio right away once there are many noises in the market calling for selling off and to seek for fixed income instruments, such as fixed deposits. It will be DISASTROUS to my way in accumulating wealth as a business investor.

(6) I should be disciplined and persevere with the plan.


When should i start selling my shares in a company?

I bought G Invacom's share in 2012 at about 16.8cts/share. I bought 214,000 shares at that time. The share price went up all the way to the highest of 57.5cts/share in the early of 2014 (about 2 years from my purchase). If i had sold my shares at one of the peak point say 52cts/share, i would had made about 200% gain or $72k from my $36k capital.

Too bad i did not do that. I only managed to sell about 30% out of my total holding, and the remaining shares went down all the way to about 10cts in the early of 2016.


This is a good lesson learnt for me:


(1) I should have started to sell the shares when the company started to report less profit in 2 consecutive quarters (for quarterly reporting company) or 2 consecutive half years (for semi annual reporting company). G Invacom started to report less profit in their FY2014 result.

(2) I should only be focused on the fundamental of the company, not on my investment return.